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Gaia data picks a winner among dark matter halo shapes

Aryan Singh, Shantanu Desai

May 16, 2026

Using four Gaia DR3 rotation-curve compilations and testing seven dark matter density profiles against three baryonic models, the analysis ranks the Einasto profile as the preferred fit in most dataset-model combinations. Cored profiles — those with a flat central density rather than a steep central cusp — also outperform the standard NFW profile, adding weight to the long-running 'cusp-core' debate. MOND, tested with three interpolating functions, fares worse than the leading dark matter profiles across the board. No single baryonic model stands out as decisively better than the others.
Published as Determination of the best dark matter profile for the Milky Way with Gaia DR3 using Bayesian Model Comparison arXiv:2605.16994
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