Why AI's green energy promises don't actually work

Data centers chasing AI demand now consume 4.4% of US electricity, but renewable energy certificates (RECs)—the main tool hyperscalers use to claim zero emissions—fail because they don't match when power is actually used versus when it's generated. Researchers built a game-theory model and tested it against real grid data from LLM releases, finding AI demand spikes fossil generation, wholesale prices jump 25%, and outage frequency rises 0.5–1 extra blackouts per year. Only on-site storage or inference at the edge fixes the problem; RECs alone don't help.