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How do self-driving cars predict danger before it happens?

Xinyi Ning, Zilin Bian, Dachuan Zuo, Semiha Ergan, Kaan Ozbay

May 30, 2026

Autonomous vehicles need to predict where other cars will go—but most trajectory models ignore how danger evolves ahead of time. This work adds a "risk horizon profiling" layer that tracks spatial-temporal proximity of nearby objects across future time steps, letting the model learn which moments matter most to human drivers. Tested on highway and urban crash data, the method cuts prediction error by 25–29% over baselines and generalizes across safe, near-crash, and actual crash scenarios. Code released.
Published as From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction arXiv:2606.00857
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