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What physical laws do AI weather models actually learn?

George Craig, Tobias Selz, Matthias Beylich, Kirsten I. Tempest

May 22, 2026

AI weather models like GraphCast and Aurora outperform traditional forecasts, but what physics are they actually implementing? Using kernel alignment and layer analysis, researchers found different AI architectures converge on similar internal representations—suggesting they simulate a particle-based atmosphere where latent variables flow like particles toward an energy minimum. This reveals that AI models implicitly learn physical laws shaped by their architecture, independent of conventional numerical weather prediction equations.
Published as The physics of AI weather models arXiv:2605.23778
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