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How Japan's war machine rigged stock prices for connected companies

Keiichi Morimoto, Akihiko Noda, Takenobu Yuki

May 20, 2026

Researchers analyzed Japanese stock prices from 1930 to 1943, finding that zaibatsu (major conglomerates) consistently outperformed competitors on the market—not because they were more profitable, but because wartime controls gave them preferential access to credit and materials. The market wasn't broken; it was working exactly as designed, correctly reflecting the political advantage of being well-connected.
Published as Wartime Controls, Political Connections, and the Pricing of Zaibatsu Rents in Japan, 1930-1943 arXiv:2605.21009
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