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Can betting odds reveal when football matches are fixed?

David Winkelmann, Maya Vienken, Christian Deutscher, Roland Langrock

May 28, 2026

Researchers analyzed high-frequency betting data from Italian Serie B matches to detect match-fixing through abnormal wagering behavior. Using statistical models to predict normal betting volume, they identified unusual patterns that deviate from expected levels—potential signatures of manipulation. Since football betting generates trillions annually and integrity scandals recur globally, a data-driven detection system could catch fixers before the fraud spreads.
Published as Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics arXiv:2605.30209
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