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gr-qc

Higher-order statistics could fingerprint the black hole binary hum

Hinano Hisamamtsu, Koutarou Kyutoku

May 18, 2026

Pulsar Timing Arrays detect a hum of gravitational waves likely produced by millions of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries, but standard analyses extract only the spectral shape. By introducing a physically motivated lower redshift cutoff tied to single-source detectability, higher-order statistical moments — previously plagued by divergences — become tractable. These moments turn out to depend on the binary mass function only through a single chirp-mass average, and the variance-to-mean ratio isolates that average independently of the total merger rate. A consistency relation between kurtosis and squared skewness also offers a direct test of whether binaries truly dominate the background.
Published as Higher-order statistics of the stochastic gravitational wave background from supermassive black hole binaries arXiv:2605.17983
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