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gr-qc

Is that gravitational wave signal really eccentric, or just bad priors?

Teagan A. Clarke, Isobel M. Romero-Shaw, Charlie Hoy, Jakob Stegmann, Paul D. Lasky, Eric Thrane

May 18, 2026

Claims of orbital eccentricity in gravitational-wave events depend heavily on arbitrary analysis choices — specifically, which reference frequency is used and what prior distribution is assumed. Applying a new reference-frequency-independent detection statistic to GW200105, a neutron star–black hole merger flagged as eccentric by multiple groups, the evidence for eccentricity nearly vanishes (ln Bayes factor ≤ 0.9). Since eccentricity is the clearest fingerprint of how a binary formed, getting the measurement right matters enormously for understanding the origins of these mergers.
Published as A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study arXiv:2605.18742
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