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What if quantum gravity makes probabilities themselves uncertain?

Vittorio D'Esposito, Giuseppe Fabiano, Domenico Frattulillo

May 22, 2026

Using a mathematical structure called SU_q(2) — a 'quantum deformation' of ordinary rotational symmetry thought to emerge near the Planck scale — the authors show that probabilities for spin measurements no longer commute with each other. This creates a Heisenberg-like uncertainty relation between probabilities themselves: knowing the odds of one spin outcome forces the odds of another to be indefinite. Two observers using such a framework can never precisely agree on their relative orientation.
Published as Indefinite probabilities in quantum spacetime: A deepening of unpredictability arXiv:2605.23862
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