Can math predict dengue outbreaks zone by zone?

Researchers built a transmission model for dengue in Ahmedabad using five years of case data, accounting for both symptomatic and hidden infections. The model revealed hotspots vary sharply across city zones and that mosquito-killing strategies work best when tailored to local mosquito density. Periodic fogging helps gradually, but consistent residual spraying stops outbreaks fast—insight that could reshape vector control in dengue-endemic cities.