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What actually stops dengue from spreading? Mathematical clues

Cesar Alberto Rosales-Alcantar, Marcos A. Capistrán

May 20, 2026

Researchers built a mathematical model of dengue transmission between humans and mosquitoes, including waning immunity and vertical transmission in mosquitoes. Using sensitivity analysis, they found that the human recovery rate and mosquito-to-human population ratio drive epidemic patterns far more than contact rates do. This suggests public health should focus on isolating infected patients from mosquitoes rather than broad distancing measures.
Published as Drivers of Transient Dynamics and Persistence in Dengue: Insights from Sensitivity and Stochastic Modeling arXiv:2605.21787
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