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q-bio.PE

How disease memory shapes infection spread across space

Hassan El Bouz, Karim Faraj, Anthony Khairallah, Fatima Mroue

May 29, 2026

Researchers built an equation-based model for how infectious diseases spread geographically, accounting for the fact that incubation periods vary—some people infect others before showing symptoms, others much later. They proved the model has valid solutions and simulated it on Lebanon's geography. The approach captures realistic disease dynamics that simpler models miss, offering better tools for predicting where outbreaks hit hardest.
Published as Derivation, Analysis and Simulation of a Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology Model with Memory arXiv:2605.31274
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