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Can uncertainty estimates stay fair when data shifts over time?

Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi, Jeremias Sulam

May 29, 2026

Real-world ML systems must provide reliable uncertainty estimates that don't degrade as data distribution shifts—and crucially, those estimates should be fair across different demographic groups. This paper combines two usually-conflicting goals: group-conditional coverage (fairness) and parameter-free adaptation (robustness to unknown shifts). The algorithm achieves tighter prediction intervals than existing tuned methods while guaranteeing coverage for every subgroup, tested on synthetic and real datasets.
Published as Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction arXiv:2606.00419
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