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Can uncertainty estimates stay fair when data shifts over time?
Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi, Jeremias Sulam
May 29, 2026
Real-world ML systems must provide reliable uncertainty estimates that don't degrade as data distribution shifts—and crucially, those estimates should be fair across different demographic groups. This paper combines two usually-conflicting goals: group-conditional coverage (fairness) and parameter-free adaptation (robustness to unknown shifts). The algorithm achieves tighter prediction intervals than existing tuned methods while guaranteeing coverage for every subgroup, tested on synthetic and real datasets.
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